兩岸關係

開創新局面,我對馬習會的希望

圖片來源:flickr@Max Braun, CC BY-SA 2.0

毫無疑問,大多數台灣人在看習近平和馬英九的兩岸領導人會面時,帶著極大的期待與忐忑。世界媒體對這次會面的報導鋪天蓋地,也表明這是個重大的歷史事件,是海峽兩岸領導人66年來第一次相遇。但我認為,我們必須以開放的心態看待這次會面。

身為台灣人,我們應該向前看,試圖超越過去內部的政治分歧。雖然在國內,我們苦於政治分裂和社會動盪,這種動盪是台灣最特別之處,因為我們是華語文世界中唯一充滿活力的民主社會。馬習會談的成果如何還沒有人知道,但兩岸交流的勢頭,已經把我們帶到了這個歷史的分水嶺,台灣的政治領導人和人民應該團結起來,充分利用這個機會,為未來創造新的可能性。積極主動與中國政府接觸的方針,將更能配合在民間日益頻繁的兩岸交流。在國家層級建立正式對話管道,也能創造出新的可能性,更可能影響未來兩岸關係的走向。

只從國內政治的立場來理解本次峰會的含義,恐怕顯得偏見和狹隘。許多人評論說,馬總統的任期已經快結束,處於支持率低得離譜的跛腳鴨階段,他缺乏代表台灣人民的授權,有人甚至認為馬總統該被彈劾。只要退一步思考中國與台灣關係的歷史框架,我們就會明白,台灣是國際政治上的異數和冷戰的產物。台灣是一個事實上的主權國家,台灣的過去和未來都是由兩個大國來創建與決定的。因此,說我們要維持現狀,這前提必須是基於政治上的不確定性,是非常主觀、短暫,因此這並非一個現實的或長期的解決方案。

台灣無法單方面選擇自己命運的這個事實,讓這場峰會顯得更加難得與罕見。當然,這場峰會突然成形的原因有很多,包括美國和中國的地緣政治緊張,以及中國和台灣的國內政治情勢,我認為必須注意這對台灣未來命運的意涵。由於兩岸關係的「壓軸戲」,也就是終極統一或獨立,超出了我們自己的選擇,我們應該寧可仔細思考本次峰會將帶來何種實質的變化。 

雖然有識者已經指出,本次會議將是象徵性與儀式性較大,這仍然為未來對話樹立了先例。

兩岸關係在過去的二十年慢慢解凍,儘管很多台灣對中國當局仍有深深的不信任感,中國仍然是我們的鄰居和貿易夥伴。有許多台灣人在中國工作,許多台灣企業,包括我的公司在內,在中國做生意。不只對台灣來說,中國對全球來說都是商業和製造中心,我甚至可以說「在中國做生意並不等同於全球化,但認為全球化可以跳過中國是自欺欺人」。儘管民間交流日益正常化,在官方高層的交流,主要還是通過密使、掮客和秘密管道,既無管制又完全缺乏監督機制。

如今,上述掌握在特定政治人物手裡的特權,和此一現象的弊端,在過去幾年也逐漸浮出水面。兩岸關係的紅利,並未廣大人民所共享,現在這種溝通方式正逐漸被人民所拒絕。在過去的政治環境下,這些特使當然有其背後成因,但兩岸對話逐步制度化,是朝向正確的方向,因為人民將能要求適當的監督,更適合目前的社會環境。如果這樣的峰會能逐漸成為一個標準流程,我們的民選總統與他/她的政黨經過民意認可,可能是代表國家利益最恰當的人選,兩岸縣市首長之間交流已經行之有年,兩岸領導人也該有正式交流管道。

台灣維持這種尷尬的現狀已經超過六十年,我們是少數幾個還未解決的政治異數之一。現有的政治分歧讓台灣在全球受到很多不公平待遇,引用一首流行歌的歌詞來形容就是:「曖昧讓人受盡委屈」。但我相信這樣的特殊情況,只能通過積極參與來解決。毫無疑問地,台灣有自己的民選官員,是事實上的主權國家。如果兩大主要政黨可以在現實政治(realpolitik)的前提下,產出可行和實質的中國政策,對人民來說會很有利。

兩岸交流增加的勢頭不會立即發生變化。能有互相較勁的中國政策,與適當的監督政策,對台灣是有利的。政治的變化是日積月累的,這個變化不會一夕之間發生,相反的,必須要透過適當的催化劑,來促成新的慣性。因此,我們的政治領導人應該珍惜這一刻,並好好地利用它。獨立或統一可以是一個理想,但它不一定能給我們帶來幸福,再者,這不是我們可以片面決定的。任何一方有智慧的領導人,應該盡力確保台灣人民的安全和幸福。我們應該歡迎本次峰會的發生,同時對隨之而來、在海峽兩岸的動態變化保持警醒。

(作者為7年級生,哥倫比亞大學東亞系政治系學士,哈佛大學東亞研究所碩士,現為環球水泥公司副總經理。本文原文為英文,全文如下,由劉光瑩英翻中。)

 

Ushering into a new chapter; my hopes for the Ma-Xi Summit/ Jack Chih-yuan Hou

Without a doubt most Taiwanese view the upcoming summit between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou with great anticipation and apprehension. This event has received headline coverage across the globe which shows that this is a truly historical event that it will be the first time that two leaders of the divided strait meet in 66 years. Under this context, I believe it is important for us to look forward to this event with an open mind. As Taiwanese, we ought to look forward, look beyond, look past our internal political differences. Though domestically, we have been besieged by political schisms and social unrest, such unrest is what makes us special as we are the only vibrant democracy in the Sinophone world. No one is sure of the outcome of the talk. But the momentum of cross strait exchanges have brought us to this historical watershed, Taiwan political leaders and people alike should unite and take advantage to create something new for our future. A policy of proactive engagement with Chinese government can better align with the ever-increasing cross strait exchanges on the private sector. Establishing an official channel for dialogues on the state level can also usher new possibilities that may define future cross strait relationship.  

It is redundant, biased and narrow minded at this juncture to discern the summit's implication on domestic politics. Many have commented that Ma, who is already in the lame duck stage of his presidency with abysmally low approval rating, lacks the mandate to represent the Taiwanese people and some have even gone as far as to call for his impeachment. Taking a step back to consider the historical framework of China Taiwan relations and we may immediately understand that Taiwan is an aberration of international politics and a relic of cold war. We are a small de facto sovereign nation that is trapped under two great powers that created our past and dictate our future. Thus, to say that we wish to uphold the status quo, which is one that is predicated on a political ambiguity that is highly subjective and transient in nature is not realistic nor is it a long-term solution. The unfortunate fact that we cannot unilaterally choose our fate make a summit of this nature even more significant as it is rare that a summit of this stature can take place. Of course, there are many reasons why this summit suddenly happened, including geo-political tensions between the US and China and domestic politics in both China and Taiwan, it would be practical to rather focus on the implication for the future of Taiwan. As a "grand finale" of cross strait relations, i.e. unification or independence is a decision that beyond our own choosing, we should rather think of the tangible changes that may come as a result of this summit. 

Though conventional wisdom points to that this meeting will be symbolic and ceremonial, it is still a precedent for future dialogues. The thaw in cross strait relationship has been taking place for the past two decades, and despite the deep distrust that many Taiwanese still have with the Chinese authority, China is still our closest neighbor and largest business partner. There are many Taiwanese expatriates working in China, and many Taiwanese companies, including mine, conduct business activities in China. Not just for Taiwan, China is a major market for global business and a manufacturing hub to the extent that I would say, "Conducting business in China alone does not equate to globalization, but globalization without China is lying to oneself". Despite this détente on the private sector, official matters at the highest levels are still conducted mostly through secret envoys, brokers and back channels that are unregulated and completely lacking oversight. Currently, said privilege lies in the hands of selected politicians and the detriments of this phenomenon have gradually surfaced over the past few years. The benefits, dividends of cross strait relationships are not equally shared by general public and now this method of communication is gradually being rejected by the public. There is certainly a historical explanation for why these envoys were a necessity in the past due to political circumstances, but a gradual institutionalization of cross strait dialogue would be a step in the right direction of providing proper oversight that is better suited for the present times. If such summit can gradually become an established norm, our elected President and his/her party with the mandate given by the populace can be the most fitting representative which is actually already a commonplace on the gubernatorial level.

It has been more than six decades since this status quo has been created and we are the remaining few political abnormalities that have yet to be resolved. Quoting from lyrics of a hit song "曖昧讓人受盡委屈", the current political ambiguity has created a lot of unequal treatment for Taiwan globally, but I believe such peculiar situation can only be solved by proactive engagement. There is without a doubt that we are a de-facto sovereign nation that has our own elected officials. It would be a welcoming change that the two main parties can have viable and tangible China policies that is predicated on the foundation of realpolitik. The momentum of increasing cross strait exchange will not change for the immediate future, and it would be beneficial to Taiwan that we may have competing China policy based on political and economic realities with proper oversight. Changes in politics rarely happen overnight; rather, they are achieved incrementally through gaining inertia, which will not be realized without proper catalysts. Thus, our political leaders should cherish this moment and make a good use of it. Independence or unification may be kept as an ideal, but it does not necessarily bring us wellbeing plus it is ultimately not something we can unilaterally decide. A smart leader of either party should play with the game in such a way so as to ensure the safety and happiness of Taiwan people and we should embrace the occurrence of this summit, and be wary of the change in cross strait dynamic it will bring.  

(Jack Chih-yuan Hou is Vice President at Universal Cement Corporation)

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2015年11月7日,馬英九終於要見習近平了。這個喊了兩年的「兩岸關係大突破」,是世紀的大和解,還是撕裂的新開始?除了馬習個人的歷史定位外,這次會面又對台灣人民有什麼影響?你對馬習會有什麼話要講?獨立評論開設專欄,讓多元觀點併陳。不論我們同不同意彼此,希望看完後,我們可以一致對外,以台灣整體利益為優先考量。
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2015年11月7日,馬英九終於要見習近平了。這個喊了兩年的「兩岸關係大突破」,是世紀的大和解,還是撕裂的新開始?除了馬習個人的歷史定位外,這次會面又對台灣人民有什麼影響?你對馬習會有什麼話要講?獨立評論開設專欄,讓多元觀點併陳。不論我們同不同意彼此,希望看完後,我們可以一致對外,以台灣整體利益為優先考量。

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